[1]冯慧芬△,赵秋民,段广才,等.重症手足口病心肺衰竭危险因素筛选及其预测模型的建立[J].郑州大学学报(医学版),2015,(04):469-472.
 FENG Huifen,ZHAO Qiumin,DUAN Guangcai,et al.Screening of risk factors of severe handfootmouth disease with cardiopulmonary failure and establishment of forecasting model[J].JOURNAL OF ZHENGZHOU UNIVERSITY(MEDICAL SCIENCES),2015,(04):469-472.
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重症手足口病心肺衰竭危险因素筛选及其预测模型的建立()
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《郑州大学学报(医学版)》[ISSN:1671-6825/CN:41-1340/R]

卷:
期数:
2015年04期
页码:
469-472
栏目:
论著
出版日期:
2015-07-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Screening of risk factors of severe handfootmouth disease with cardiopulmonary failure and establishment of forecasting model
作者:
冯慧芬1赵秋民2段广才3 张卫东3朱光1
1)郑州大学第五附属医院感染科 郑州 4500522)郑州大学学报编辑部 郑州 4500013)郑州大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室 郑州 450001
Author(s):
FENG Huifen1 ZHAO Qiumin2 DUAN Guangcai3 ZHANG Weidong3 ZHU Guang1
1)Department of Infectious Diseases, the Fifth Affiliated Hospital,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450052 2)Editorial Board of Journal of Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 4500013)Department of Epidemiology,College of Public Health,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001
关键词:
手足口病心肺衰竭危险因素预测模型
Keywords:
handfootmouth diseasecardiopulmonary failurerisk factorforecasting model
分类号:
R512.1
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
目的:筛选重症手足口病(HFMD)患者发生心肺衰竭(CPF)的危险因素,构建重症HFMD CPF发病预测模型。方法:选择 2008 年 1月至2012 年 12 月住院重症HFMD患者,收集其临床资料,采用logistic回归方法分析CPF发生的危险因素,构建预测模型,分析该模型的预测效果。结果:Logistic回归分析结果显示,年龄≤24个月(OR=2.619,95%CI=1.609~4.262)、发热持续时间>3 d(OR=4.167,95%CI=2.591~6.703)、血糖>8.3 mmol/L(OR=8.235,95%CI=4.356~15.571)、白细胞计数增多(OR=2.661,95%CI=1.695~4.178)为重症HFMD发生CPF的危险因素。以此模型对重症HFMD CPF进行发病预测,诊断灵敏度为67.4%(31/46),特异度为85.7%(78/91),准确度为79.5%(109/137)。结论:重症HFMD CPF预测模型可定量评估重症HFMD CPF发生的风险。
Abstract:
Aim: To identify the risk factors associated with cardiopulmonary failure(CPF) in infants with severe handfootmouth disease(HFMD), and develop a reliable prediction system for it. Methods: Logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between risk factors and CPF. The predictive effect of the model was evaluated. Results: In the multivariable analysis, 4 variables [age≤24 months(OR=2.619, 95%CI=1.609-4.262), days of fever>3 d(OR=4.167, 95%CI=2.591-6.703, hyperglycaemia(OR=8.235, 95%CI=4.356-15.571) and leucocytosis(OR=2.661, 95%CI=1.695-4.178)] in the risk evaluation model remained independent predictors of CPF. When the prediction was performed based on the existing data using the present model, the sensitivity, specificity and consistency of the model were 67.4%(31/46), 85.7%(78/91) and 79.5%(109/137), respectively. Conclusion: The forecasting model was a quantitative and effective tool for predicting CPF in infants with severe HFMD.

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更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01