[1]许春杰),尹素凤),郭春月),等.河北省育龄妇女生育水平变化及未来人口预测*[J].郑州大学学报(医学版),2017,(01):75-78.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6825.2017.01.020]
 XU Chunjie),YIN Sufeng),GUO Chunyue),et al.Change of women's fertility level and future population forecast in Hebei Province[J].JOURNAL OF ZHENGZHOU UNIVERSITY(MEDICAL SCIENCES),2017,(01):75-78.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6825.2017.01.020]
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河北省育龄妇女生育水平变化及未来人口预测*()
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《郑州大学学报(医学版)》[ISSN:1671-6825/CN:41-1340/R]

卷:
期数:
2017年01期
页码:
75-78
栏目:
应用研究
出版日期:
2017-01-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Change of women's fertility level and future population forecast in Hebei Province
作者:
许春杰1)尹素凤1)郭春月1)刘晓宇2)杜 莹1)范红敏1)冯福民1)胡 泊1)#
1)华北理工大学公共卫生学院医学统计与流行病学系 河北唐山 063000;
2)华北理工大学附属开滦医院呼吸内科 河北唐山 063000
Author(s):
XU Chunjie1)YIN Sufeng1)GUO Chunyue1)LIU Xiaoyu2)DU Ying1)FAN Hongmin1)FENG Fumin1)HU Bo1)
1)Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, College of Public Health, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan, Hebei 063000;
2)Department of Respiratory Medicine, Kailuan Hospital, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan, Hebei 063000
关键词:
生育水平 人口预测 差别分解法 人口移算法 河北省
Keywords:
fertility level population forecast different decomposition method population-shift algorithm Hebei Province
分类号:
R181.2
DOI:
10.13705/j.issn.1671-6825.2017.01.020
摘要:
目的:根据河北省第3~6次人口普查资料,对河北省育龄妇女生育水平变化进行分析并对未来人口进行预测。方法:使用河北省育龄妇女的年龄别生育率及一般生育率差别分解法分析妇女生育水平变化,并用人口移算法对未来几年人口进行预测。结果:2010年河北省的总和生育率为0.130%; 1981~2010年河北省育龄妇女一般生育率下降主要由妇女年龄别生育率变化引起; 预测2015、 2020和2025年河北省总人口数分别为74 361 021、75 215 416和74 942 574。结论:河北省已经进入极低生育率水平,并将在2025年出现人口负增长。
Abstract:
Aim: To analyze the change of women's fertility level and forecast the future population based on the data from the third to the sixth demographic census in Hebei Province.Methods: The age-specific fertility rate of women and the different decomposition method were used to explain the change of women's fertility level in Hebei Province and population-shift algorithm was used to predict the future population size.Results: The total fertility was 0.130% in 2010 and the decline of general fertility from 1981 to 2010 mainly arose from the change of women's age-specific fertility rate. The sum of population predicted by population-shift algorithm would reach 74 361 021 in 2015,75 215 416 in 2020, and 74 942 574 in 2025, respectively.Conclusion: Women's fertility level has been reached extremely low fertility and there may be negative increase in 2025 in Hebei Province.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
*河北省卫生厅医学科学研究重点课题计划 20130055; 华北理工大学培育基金项目 SP201505
#通信作者,男,1976年5月生,博士,副教授,研究方向:流行病与卫生统计学,E-mail:2248209559@qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2017-01-20