[1]靳慧鸣,毛赛彩,王 莹,等.中国人口出生性别比空间聚集性及影响因素*[J].郑州大学学报(医学版),2017,(03):268-271.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6825.2017.03.007]
 JIN Huiming,MAO Saicai,WANG Ying,et al.Analysis on spatial cluster and influencing factors of the sex ratio at birth in China[J].JOURNAL OF ZHENGZHOU UNIVERSITY(MEDICAL SCIENCES),2017,(03):268-271.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6825.2017.03.007]
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中国人口出生性别比空间聚集性及影响因素*()
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《郑州大学学报(医学版)》[ISSN:1671-6825/CN:41-1340/R]

卷:
期数:
2017年03期
页码:
268-271
栏目:
论著
出版日期:
2017-05-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis on spatial cluster and influencing factors of the sex ratio at birth in China
作者:
靳慧鸣毛赛彩王 莹施学忠#杨永利#
郑州大学公共卫生学院卫生统计学教研室 郑州 450001
Author(s):
JIN HuimingMAO SaicaiWANG YingSHI XuezhongYANG Yongli
Department of Health Statistics,College of Public Health,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001
关键词:
出生性别比 空间回归 影响因素 中国
Keywords:
sex ratio at birth spatial regression influencing factor China
分类号:
R169
DOI:
10.13705/j.issn.1671-6825.2017.03.007
摘要:
目的:采用空间回归模型分析中国人口出生性别比的影响因素。方法:收集2010年全国31个省、自治区、直辖市出生男婴数和女婴数及经济、教育和医疗等数据,拟合多重线性回归模型和空间回归模型。结果:空间相关分析显示中国人口出生性别比存在空间聚集性(Moran's I=0.281,Z=4.093,P<0.001)。多重线性回归模型和空间回归模型均显示少数民族人口比例(%)、平均每千人卫生机构床位数(张)、人口出生率(‰)和二胎及以上胎次比例(%)是中国人口出生性别比的影响因素; 多重线性回归模型4个变量的β分别为-0.201、-6.237、2.458和-0.507(P均<0.05),模型R2为0.760; 空间回归模型4个变量的β分别为-0.199、-6.314、2.451和-0.504(P均<0.05),模型R2为0.816。结论:中国人口出生性别比呈现空间聚集性; 影响中国人口出生性别比的因素为少数民族人口比例、平均每千人卫生机构床位数、人口出生率和二胎及以上胎次比例。
Abstract:
Aim: To explore the influencing factors of sex ratio at birth(SRB)in China by spatial regression model.Methods: The number of male and female infants and the economic, educational and health data of 31 provinces in China in 2010 were collected, and multiple linear regression model and spatial regression model were fitted.Results: Spatial correlation analysis showed there was spatial cluster of SRB in China(Moran's I=0.281,Z=4.093,P<0.001). Multiple linear regression model and spatial regression model both showed that the proportion of minorities' population, average beds per one thousand people, birth rate and the rate of the second child or above were the influencing factors of SRB. β of the four factors fitted by multiple linear regressionwere -0.201,-6.237,2.458 and -0.507(P<0.05), and R2 was 0.760. Those fitted by spatial regression model were -0.199,-6.314,2.451 and -0.504, and R2 was 0.816(P<0.05).Conclusion: Spatial cluster of SRB in China exists. The influencing factors of SRB in China include proportion of minorities' population, average beds per one thousand people, birth rate and the rate of the second child or above.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
*河南省教育厅科学技术研究重点项目 14B330004
#通信作者:施学忠,男,1964年5月生,博士,教授,博士研究生导师,研究方向:卫生服务统计方法与应用,E-mail:xzshi@126.com; 杨永利,女,1974年12月生,博士,副教授,研究方向:卫生服务统计方法与应用,E-mail:ylyang377@126.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2017-05-20