[1]黄 平),冯慧芬),王 芳),等.重症手足口病列线图预测模型的建立[J].郑州大学学报(医学版),2019,(01):93-97.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6825.2018.07.059]
 HUANG Ping),FENG Huifen),WANG Fang),et al.Establishment of severe hand-foot-mouth disease prediction model[J].JOURNAL OF ZHENGZHOU UNIVERSITY(MEDICAL SCIENCES),2019,(01):93-97.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6825.2018.07.059]
点击复制

重症手足口病列线图预测模型的建立()
分享到:

《郑州大学学报(医学版)》[ISSN:1671-6825/CN:41-1340/R]

卷:
期数:
2019年01期
页码:
93-97
栏目:
应用研究
出版日期:
2019-01-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Establishment of severe hand-foot-mouth disease prediction model
作者:
黄 平1)冯慧芬1)王 芳2)党德建3)王 斌1)赵 敬1)易佳音1)
1)郑州大学第五附属医院消化科 郑州 450052 2)郑州大学附属儿童医院感染科 郑州 450051 3)郑州大学第五附属医院感染控制科 郑州 450052
Author(s):
HUANG Ping1) FENG Huifen1) WANG Fang2) DANG Dejian3) WANG Bin1) ZHAO Jing1) YI Jiayin1)
1)Department of Gastroenterology,the Fifth Affiliated Hospital,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450052 2)Department of Infectious Diseases,Children's Hospital Affiliated to Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450051 3)Department of Infection Control,the Fifth Affiliated Hospital,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450052
关键词:
重症手足口病 评分工具 列线图
Keywords:
severe hand-foot-mouth disease scoring tool nomogram
分类号:
R195
DOI:
10.13705/j.issn.1671-6825.2018.07.059
摘要:
目的:开发一种可以用于辅助临床预测重症手足口病(HFMD)的定量评价工具。方法:收集郑州市某儿童医院2017年7月至2018年2月诊治的HFMD患儿病例数据,包括轻症组562例和重症组218例。所有数据的处理使用R软件进行。将原始数据分成训练子集(70%)和测试子集(30%)。使用logistic回归筛选预测变量,构建列线图。使用ROC曲线图和分类器校准图评估模型预测性能。结果:列线图模型拟合度检验和分类器校准图均显示拟合较好,其预测正确率为83.9%,ROC曲线下面积为0.850(95%CI=0.835~0.864)。结论:列线图可以用于重症HFMD风险的预测,具有简单、直观、实用性强等优势。
Abstract:
Aim:To develop a quantitative assessment tool which can be used to assist clinical prediction of severe hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD)using the nomogram model.Methods: The clinical data of children diagnosed with HFMD and treated by the inpatient department of a hospital in Zhengzhou from July 2017 to February 2018 were collected, including 562 mild cases and 218 severe ones. All data processing was performed by using the R software. The original data were divided into a training subset(70%)and a test subset(30%).Logistic regression was used to screen predictors to construct a nomogram model. Finally, the evaluation of model performance was performed by using the ROC curve and the classifier calibration plot.Results: The fitting test of the nomogram model and the calibration plot of the classifier showed that the fitting was good. The model performed well, with an accuracy of 83.9% and the area under the ROC curve of 0.850(95%CI=0.835-0.864).Conclusion: The nomogram can be used to assess the risk prediction of severe HFMD. As the nomogram is simple, intuitive and practical, it shows a certain auxiliary value in clinical practice.

参考文献/References:

[1] WANG Y,FENG Z,YANG Y,et al.Hand, foot, and mouth disease in China: patterns of spread and transmissibility[J].Epidemiology,2011,22(6):781
[2] OOI MH,WONG SC,LEWTHWAITE P,et al.Clinical features, diagnosis, and management of enterovirus 71[J].Lancet Neurol,2010,9(11):1097
[3] LIU Z,WANG S,YANG R,et al.A case-control study of risk factors for severe hand-foot-mouth disease in Yuxi, China, 2010-2012[J].Virol Sin,2014,29(2):123
[4] XING W,LIAO Q,VIBOUD C,et al.Hand, foot, and mouth disease in China, 2008-12: an epidemiological study[J].Lancet Infect Dis,2014,14(4):308
[5] 尤俊斌,苏郑明.肠道病毒71型引起手足口病的发病机制[J].医学研究生学报,2012,25(8):876
[6] XIE D,MARKS R,ZHANG MR,et al.Nomograms predict overall survival for patients with small-cell lung cancer incorporating pretreatment peripheral blood markers[J].J Thorac Oncol,2015,10(8):1213
[7] BALACHANDRAN VP,GONEN M,SMITH J.Nomograms in oncology: more than meets the eye[J].Lancet Oncology,2015,16(4):E173
[8] IASONOS A,SCHRAG D,RAJ GV,et al.How to build and interpret a nomogram for cancer prognosis[J].J Clin Oncol,2008,26(8):1364
[9] 冯慧芬,赵秋民,段广才,等.重症手足口病心肺衰竭危险因素筛选及其预测模型的建立[J].郑州大学学报(医学版),2015,50(4):469
[10]朱其荣,王川林,刘娇,等.EV71型重症手足口病患儿的临床特征及危险因素的相关性分析[J].中国现代医学杂志,2017,27(25):67
[11]中华人民共和国卫生部.手足口病诊疗指南(2010年版)[J].国际呼吸杂志,2010,30(24):1473
[12]KEOGH C,WALLACE E,O'BRIEN KK,et al.Optimized retrieval of primary care clinical prediction rules from MEDLINE to establish a web-based register[J].J Clin Epidemiol,2011,64(8):848
[13]OOI MH,WONG SC,MOHAN A,et al.Identification and validation of clinical predictors for the risk of neurological involvement in children with hand, foot, and mouth disease in Sarawak[J].BMC Infect Dis,2009,9:3
[14]林克武,李昌崇.手足口病合并脑炎相关风险因素分析[J].实用医学杂志,2015,31(15):2532
[15]CHEW SP,CHONG SL,BARBIER S,et al.Risk factors for severe hand foot mouth disease in Singapore: a case control study[J].BMC Infect Dis,2015,15:486
[16]朱杰辉,段广才,郗园林,等.郑州市2015年轻、重症手足口病患儿的临床体征、实验室指标动态分析[J].郑州大学学报(医学版),2017,52(5):625
[17]LIU BY,LUO L,YAN SY,et al.Clinical features for mild hand, foot and mouth disease in china[J].PLoS One,2015,10(8):e0135503
[18]LUO KW,GAO LD,HU SX,et al.Hand, foot, and mouth disease in Hunan Province, China, 2009-2014: epidemiology and death risk factors[J].PLoS One,2016,11(11):e0167269

相似文献/References:

[1]隋美丽),申远方),黄学勇),等.分类树模型在重症手足口病风险预测中的应用*[J].郑州大学学报(医学版),2015,(01):20.
 SUI Meili),SHEN Yuanfang),HUANG Xueyong),et al.Application of risk prediction model for severe handfootmouth disease by classification tree[J].JOURNAL OF ZHENGZHOU UNIVERSITY(MEDICAL SCIENCES),2015,(01):20.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
【基金项目】国家自然科学基金项目(81473030); 河南省医学科技攻关普通项目(201403130); 河南省卫生系统出国研修项目(2015065) 【作者简介】冯慧芬,通信作者,女,1972年11月生,博士,主任医师,研究方向: 传染病流行病学,E-mail:huifen.feng@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-01-20