[1]赵 敬),冯慧芬),王 芳),等.基于2008至2017年郑州市二七区手足口病监测数据的时间序列建模分析[J].郑州大学学报(医学版),2019,(01):97-101.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6825.2018.05.039]
 ZHAO Jing),FENG Huifen),WANG Fang),et al.Time series modeling analysis of hand-foot-mouth disease surveillance data in Erqi District of Zhengzhou City from 2008 to 2017[J].JOURNAL OF ZHENGZHOU UNIVERSITY(MEDICAL SCIENCES),2019,(01):97-101.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6825.2018.05.039]
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基于2008至2017年郑州市二七区手足口病监测数据的时间序列建模分析()
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《郑州大学学报(医学版)》[ISSN:1671-6825/CN:41-1340/R]

卷:
期数:
2019年01期
页码:
97-101
栏目:
应用研究
出版日期:
2019-01-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Time series modeling analysis of hand-foot-mouth disease surveillance data in Erqi District of Zhengzhou City from 2008 to 2017
作者:
赵 敬1)冯慧芬2)王 芳3)秦新华3)赵保玲3)易佳音1)王 斌1)黄 平1)
1)郑州大学第五附属医院消化内科 郑州450052 2)郑州大学第五附属医院感染科 郑州450052 3)郑州大学附属儿童医院感染科 郑州450051
Author(s):
ZHAO Jing1) FENG Huifen2) WANG Fang3) QIN Xinhua3) ZHAO Baoling3) YI Jiayin1) WANG Bin1) HUANG Ping1)
1)Department of Gastroenterology,the Fifth Affiliated Hospital,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450052 2)Department of Infection,the Fifth Affiliated Hospital,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450052 3)Department of Infectious Diseases,Children's Hospital Affiliated to Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450051
关键词:
手足口病 时间序列 建模
Keywords:
Hand-foot-mouth disease time series analysis modeling
分类号:
R195
DOI:
10.13705/j.issn.1671-6825.2018.05.039
摘要:
目的:探讨时间序列模型在预测郑州市二七区手足口病(HFMD)发病方面的应用价值。方法:收集郑州市二七区2008至2017年相应的HFMD监测数据。选用R 3.4.4软件绘制热图,并应用SPSS 23.0建立季节性求和自回归滑动平均(SARIMA)模型,用2017年的手足口病发病例数进行验证。结果:SARIMA(2,2,1)×(2,2,1)12模型拟合较好,R2为0.624,对2017年HFMD的发病预测较为符合。结论:SARIMA模型在预测和评估HFMD流行趋势和发病情况方面表现较佳,可以用来辅助进行相应疫情布控方面的决策。
Abstract:
Aim:To explore the application value of time series model in predicting the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD)in Erqi District of Zhengzhou City.Methods:The corresponding HFMD monitoring datas for the from 2008 to 2017 were collected. The R software 3.4.4 was used to draw the heat map, while SPSS 23.0 was used for modeling and other processing. A seasonally-summing autoregressive moving average(SARIMA)model was established and verified by HFMD cases in 2017.Results: SARIMA(2,2,1)×(2,2,1)12 model fitted well with a stable R-square of 0.624, and the HFMD morbidity prediction of 2017 also fitted well.Conclusion: SARIMA model performs better in predicting and evaluating HFMD epidemics and morbidity and can be used to assist the region in making decisions regarding the deployment of outbreaks.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
【基金项目】国家自然科学基金项目(81473030); 河南省医学科技攻关普通项目(201403130); 河南省卫生系统出国研修项目(2015065) 【作者简介】冯慧芬,通信作者,女,1972年11月生,博士,主任医师,研究方向: 传染病流行病学,E-mail:huifen.feng@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-01-20